Data Sources: The Oscar Award, 1927-2025 (acquired from Kaggle), Film
and Actor Details (acquired from The Movie Database API), Google Trends
|
Three Most Popular Months for Google Search Interest by Actor Type
|
|
Type
|
Month
|
Google Trend Search Interest (mean)
|
|
Commercially Successful
|
1
|
13.1
|
|
Commercially Successful
|
7
|
13.1
|
|
Commercially Successful
|
12
|
12.7
|
|
Oscar Nominated
|
1
|
12.0
|
|
Oscar Nominated
|
2
|
11.6
|
|
Oscar Nominated
|
3
|
11.0
|
|
Commercially Successful & Oscar Nominated
|
1
|
14.5
|
|
Commercially Successful & Oscar Nominated
|
2
|
13.4
|
|
Commercially Successful & Oscar Nominated
|
12
|
13.1
|
Data Sources: The Oscar Award, 1927-2025 (acquired from Kaggle), Film
and Actor Details (acquired from The Movie Database API), Google Trends
|
Five Most Representative Actors in Each Cluster
|
|
1 - Blockbuster Staple
|
2 - Breakout Star or Memorialized
|
3 - Critically Acclaimed
|
4 - Pop Fame
|
5 - Emerging or Consistent Stardom
|
|
Chris Hemsworth
|
Maria Bakalova
|
Felicity Jones
|
Taylor Lautner
|
Gwilym Lee
|
|
Nicolas Cage
|
Chadwick Boseman
|
Glen Powell
|
Orlando Bloom
|
Tao Okamoto
|
|
Lyna
|
Irrfan Khan
|
Rami Malek
|
Megan Fox
|
George MacKay
|
|
Sam Elliott
|
Jean Dujardin
|
Tom Hiddleston
|
Freida Pinto
|
Zazie Beetz
|
|
Mads Mikkelsen
|
Carrie Fisher
|
Pedro Pascal
|
Moon Bloodgood
|
Theo James
|
Data Sources: The Oscar Award, 1927-2025 (acquired from Kaggle), Film
and Actor Details (acquired from The Movie Database API), Google Trends
|
What Percent of Actors in Each Cluster are Oscar Nominees?
|
|
Cluster
|
Percent Nominees (%)
|
|
1 - Blockbuster Staple
|
25
|
|
2 - Breakout Star or Memorialized
|
45
|
|
3 - Critically Acclaimed
|
41
|
|
4 - Pop Fame
|
22
|
|
5 - Emerging or Consistent Stardom
|
30
|
|
Random Forest Model Comparison
|
|
|
Model 1 - All Predictors
|
Model 2 - Time Series Predictors Only
|
|
Number of Trees
|
500.0000
|
500.0000
|
|
Out-of-Bag Error Rate
|
0.2411
|
0.2549
|
|
Model Accuracy Comparison
|
|
|
Model 1 - All Predictors
|
Model 2 - Time Series Predictors Only
|
|
Accuracy
|
0.75
|
0.7266
|
|
Evaluation Metrics Comparison
|
|
|
Model 1 - All Predictors
|
Model 2 - Time Series Predictors Only
|
|
Precision
|
0.7353
|
0.7101
|
|
Recall
|
0.7812
|
0.7656
|
|
F1 Score
|
0.7576
|
0.7368
|
## Model 1 - All Predictors
## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 49 20
## 1 15 44
##
## Accuracy : 0.7266
## 95% CI : (0.6408, 0.8016)
## No Information Rate : 0.5
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 1.492e-07
##
## Kappa : 0.4531
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : 0.499
##
## Sensitivity : 0.7656
## Specificity : 0.6875
## Pos Pred Value : 0.7101
## Neg Pred Value : 0.7458
## Prevalence : 0.5000
## Detection Rate : 0.3828
## Detection Prevalence : 0.5391
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.7266
##
## 'Positive' Class : 0
##
## Model 2 - Time Series Predictors Only
## Confusion Matrix and Statistics
##
## Reference
## Prediction 0 1
## 0 49 20
## 1 15 44
##
## Accuracy : 0.7266
## 95% CI : (0.6408, 0.8016)
## No Information Rate : 0.5
## P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 1.492e-07
##
## Kappa : 0.4531
##
## Mcnemar's Test P-Value : 0.499
##
## Sensitivity : 0.7656
## Specificity : 0.6875
## Pos Pred Value : 0.7101
## Neg Pred Value : 0.7458
## Prevalence : 0.5000
## Detection Rate : 0.3828
## Detection Prevalence : 0.5391
## Balanced Accuracy : 0.7266
##
## 'Positive' Class : 0
##
